Cost Estimation Of Sumatra Electricity Expansion Planning With Nuclear Option

Abstract:

The objective of the study is to obtain the cost analysis on optimum solution of Sumatra electricity system using WASP-IV Program. Considering the economic aspect, nuclear power plant (NPP) is feasible in the future.

From the geographical aspect Sumatra is prospecting for NPP site, especially the east coastal area due to the absence of hydro power potential and geothermal field. The use of petroleum as fuel in large scale power plants is not feasible. Baside causing high cost for electricity sector, it is also an important fuel for any other sectors such as transportation, electrification of isolated areas. Gas fuelled power plants is still feasible for next several decades in limited capacity. The study presents three scenarios, i.e. Low Scenario, Base Scenario and High Scenario applying discount rate 8%, 10% and 12% respectively. Cost estimation for Sumatra System Expansion Planning is 57 465 million US$ on the Base Scenario-discount rate 8% 59 349 million US$ on the Base Scenario-discount rate 10%, and 57 796 million US$ on the Base Scenario-discount rate 12%. The objective function is 15 172 US$ on the Base Scenario-discount rate 8%, 12 663 million US$ on the Base Scenario-discount rate 10%m and 11 017 million US$ on the Base Scenario-discount 12%.

Keywords: cost estimation, optimation, discount rate.

Edwaren Liun

Pusat Pengembangan energi Nuklir (PPEN)-Batan

Jl. Kuningan Barat, Mampang Prapatan, Jakarta 12710

Telp/Fax: (021)5204243, E-mail:edwaren@batan.go.id